Answer Choice (D) makes a strong rebuttal to the author's argument and is correct — there are just too many probable occurrences here rather than actual occurrences.
Choice (A) says that the author's argument is plausible but not based on contemporary evidence. This is only half right. The plausible suppositions are whether or not the crop was infected and whether the people ate contaminated rye. The contemporary evidence is that rainfall was heavy during the period under study.
Choice (B)
...
Choice (A) says that the author's argument is plausible but not based on contemporary evidence. This is only half right. The plausible suppositions are whether or not the crop was infected and whether the people ate contaminated rye. The contemporary evidence is that rainfall was heavy during the period under study.
Choice (B)
...
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