GMAT Critical Reasoning (CR) | Re: Any test that has a probability of success less than 100 hundred perce

This one is drawing a higher-than-normal number of requests for expert replies, but you might not like what I'm going to say: this question really doesn't sound like the GMAT at all to me. It sounds like the question writer was reading something about Bayes' Theorem, and decided to twist it into a GMAT CR question -- and I can't think of any official GMAT questions that even vaguely resemble this one. And the GMAT definitely doesn't test Bayes' Theorem!

Congrats to anybody who feels clear about
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